AUDUSD Analysis – Chinese Data Weighing On Aussie

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  • The Australian dollar is trading lower for the second day in a row; concerns around Chinese inflation data and US employment statistics are weighing on the "Aussie".
  • The US nonfarm payroll data from Friday revealed 80k private sector jobs were added in June, which was under the 100k forecast average from a Dow Jones Newswire poll.
  • China’s Premier Wen Jiabao has advised the Chinese economy is running at a generally stable pace, but there is still nonetheless "huge pressure to go downwards".  Australia is heavily reliant on trade with its Chinese neighbour.
  • AUDUSD price is currently consolidating around the 23.6% Fibonacci retrace from the last wave higher.  The recent trend has been to the upside as price made a series of higher lows.  Price had difficulty moving above the 100 day SMA.
  • Events in China may help determine the next directional push for the Aussie and whether we are seeing a correction in the uptrend, or initiation of a bearish trend.
  • Further economic data is due from China later this week, and the Australian dollar is vulnerable to any negative output on this front.

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