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Category Archives: Forex Weekly Analysis

Forex Analysis

Looking for an indication of where the currency markets could be heading during the following week. There is a specific focus on technical analysis, COT report data and market sentiment. The forex major exchange rates including EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD and the dollar index have regular updates. Other currency crosses are also featured if the price action is of interest or there are any major fundamental developments that could affect the currency exchange dynamics.

EURUSD Analysis – 18th may Forecast

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EURUSD Analysis & News – Euro/Dollar Rate 18th May Forecast A Greek interim government has been sworn in as concerns around the euro-zone crisis continued to add downside pressure to the world  financial markets today.  Concerns are also growing around a possible run on Greek bank deposits and a lack of European Central Bank (ECB)…

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GBPJPY Analysis 17th May 2012

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GBPJPY Analysis 17th May 2012 The high momentum downside seen on the GBPUSD currency pair this week and and subsequent weakness of USDJPY has the GBPJPY dropping rapidly today.  Price is currently trading 1.83% lower on the day as the “risk off” sentiment prevails. The biggest movements seen on the majors have come from the…

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Dollar Index Analysis 16th May 2012

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Longer Term Dollar Analysis – Dollar Index Technical Update The US Dollar continues to push broadly higher as demand for safe haven currencies grows on declining stock and commodities markets. The ongoing stalemate in Greece and subsequent failure to agree on a national unity government formation has lead to a situation where a new poll…

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Dollar Index Technical Analysis 15/5/2012

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Dollar Index Technical Analysis 15/5/2012 The USDX continues to trade near the weekly range highs after a strong daily close on Monday.  Price is now consolidating recent gains and is near flat on the day with a 0.09% drop at present.  It is no surprise to see a small reaction to the downside as this…

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EURUSD Daily Analysis–15th May Forecast

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EURUSD Daily Analysis Update European equities dropped and Italian/Spanish bond yields moved higher today as the market was increasingly concerned over the political stalemate which could potentially see Greece as the first nation to drop the European common currency.  The Greek government is due to run out of funds as soon as June and Athens…

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USDCAD At Resistance Range Highs–Jobs Data Encouraging

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USDCAD Analysis May 14th – 18th The USD/CAD currency major came across resistance at the 1.0050 area highs we highlighted in the previous update. Stronger than anticipated Canadian jobs data had the USD/CAD plummeting under parity and dropping as low as 0.9950 intra-day on Friday. Price still trading below 365 day EMA. As worries concerning…

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USDJPY Consolidates Around The 80.00 Handle Following Bear Trap

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USDJPY Analysis – 14th – 18th May Forecast The USDJPY completed the past week with no major change to the exchange rate. Interventionist rhetoric from  the BoJ was nullified to a certain extent  by risk aversion flows.  The vice finance minister of Japan said the BoJ would intervene in the Forex market if increased speculation…

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Dollar Index Analysis Forecast May 14th

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Dollar Index Analysis – USDX Gains On Flight To Cash - May 14th Forecast The dollar index hit the highest level seen since March 16th on Friday.  The USDX is now up 1.89% on the monthly basis. The dollar has seen major gains as commodities have sold off with XAGUSD (Silver) down almost 5% on the…

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis 12th May 2012

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis Update 12th May 2012 The GBPUSD currency exchange rate closed the week approx 70 pips above the 1.6000 psychological round number level on Friday; this comes after a week which covered 161 pips (only 53% of the average weekly range).  Pound to dollar is down .99% on the month which is showing…

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EURUSD analysis news 12th May 2012

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EURUSD Analysis / News 12th May 2012 The EURUSD currency pair is trading at a 2.41% loss for the month after another bearish week.   Price is struggling to re-capture 1.3000 area support which is now potential resistance going forward. Large speculators from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have increased EUR bearish wagers by over 30% on the…

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EURUSD daily Analysis Update – 11/5/2012 News and Forecast

EURUSD Daily Analysis Update – Forecast 11/5/2012 EURUSD is consolidating just below the key 1.3000 level after printing a daily close under support yesterday.  Risk aversion flows have seen the euro/dollar currency pair drop over 2.10% so far this month. Bearish momentum has run out of steam today but the risk remains to the downside…

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Dollar Index Analysis 10/5/2012

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Dollar Index Technical Analysis 10/5/2012 USDX upside pressure remains as the dollar index trades near to 80.00 area resistance.  Price has penetrated this level and is currently consolidating gains at the round number. The dollar has gained as commodities are sold across the board.  Gold is trading in a bearish continuation below range support. Dollar…

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Commodities sell off – AUDUSD And USDCAD Correlation Focus

US Dollar Stronger As Commodities Sell off – AUDUSD And USDCAD Correlations Could See Increased Volatility Sudden losses in the price of Crude Oil and Gold have pushed the US Dollar up versus the Australian and Canadian Dollar.  Any further drop in commodities will most likely see USDCAD gain accordingly with the AUD pushing lower….

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EURUSD News And Analysis 8/5/2012

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EURUSD News And Analysis Update 8th May Greece continues to be under focus as it threatens to become ungovernable. The general consensus seems to be that the situation following Sunday’s election means that it is now not feasible to have a viable majority government.   The markets do not like uncertainty and this could weigh on…

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EURUSD Gap Open On French Elections And Greek Bailout Protests

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EURUSD Gap Open On Hollande French Election Win And Greek Protest Vote The 1.2970-1.3000 zone has previously seen strong support for the EUR/USD exchange rate. The dollar has seen this week seen gains against its currency major counterparts and provided a gap open for the euro/dollar pair. The EUR/USD dropped last night as new French…

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Large Speculators Heavily Long CAD – Potential USDCAD Bullish Breakout Short Squeeze

U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar Analysis /USD CAD News/Forecast  The Loonie has seen net long positioning soar to over 70,000 contracts on the latest reporting period according to Fridays COT report data – a significant rise and up from around 44,000 net longs the prior week.   This represents the most significant net long Canadian dollar…

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NZDUSD Update 7 May – 11 May 2012 New Zealand Dollar Analysis

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New Zealand Dollar Breaks Below Key 0.8000 Level The New Zealand dollar dropped with momentum last week, instantly shedding 1/3 of a cent versus its US dollar currency counterpart during the Friday trading session. There has been a clean break of the 0.8000 round number level and the pair looks to be hinting at further…

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USDJPY Near Multi Week Lows – BOJ intervention Talk

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USDJPY Analysis – BOJ Interventionist Rhetoric – May 6th 2012 The JPY is still near the top of recent trading ranges versus currency majors.  The Yen pressed once again over the key 80.00 versus the dollar on fresh intervention talk from Japanese policy makers during last week. Friday had the dollar/yen move back to recent…

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Dollar Index Analysis May 6th 2012

Dollar Index Technical Update – USDX – DXY – USD Technical Forecast The dollar index has seen four consecutive up days after 78.70 area support held at the start of the week.  Price is now retesting the previously broken ascending trend line. This area is just below a touch of the descending trend line which…

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EURUSD Technical Update 5th May 2012

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EURUSD Analysis 5th May 2012 – Triangle Pattern Support Under Pressure The euro/dollar currency pair has closed on Friday at key range support lows after a drop of 1.15% was seen on the weekly basis.  Volatility is still low at 203 pips which is  71% of the 26 week average of 284 pips. Friday had…

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GBPUSD Analysis May 4th 2012

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GBPUSD Analysis Update May 4th 2012 The GBPUSD currency pair has seen corrective downside price action this week following a strong bullish run over previous sessions (see the daily GBPUSD chart below).  Speculators increased bullish wagers by 123% on the previous week according to the latest CFTC COT report (commitment of traders). British pound net…

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Dollar Index Analysis 2nd May 2012

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Dollar Index Technical Analysis Update – 2nd May 2012 The US dollar index has found support at the 78.60 area prior swing low and 150 EMA area.  Price rallied today after two “indecision candles” formed on the daily timeframe.  A doji was seen on Monday followed by a spinning top (also technically an outside day)…

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Australian interest rate Cut by half a percent

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RBA Cut Australian Interest Rate By Half A Percent The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) has cut the key rate down to what is a two-year low; the Australian interest rate is now 3.75 percent after previously being set at a level of 4.25 percent.  This change in the key rate represents the biggest reduction…

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USDCAD Analysis 30th April 2012

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USDCAD Analysis – Interest Rate Expectations Drop And the CAD Follows The Canadian dollar today dropped heavily versus the U.S. dollar after Canadian GDP (gross domestic product) surprisingly dipped during February and added weight to a “no rate change” scenario.  The CAD likewise dropped 1.27% versus the Japanese Yen which was experiencing broad based market…

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EURUSD Daily Analysis 30th-April 2012

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EURUSD Rate Analysis 30th-April 2012 Analysis update from EURUSD Daily The Euro to Dollar exchange rate has moved lower during the European morning session and is trading down 0.18% at time of posting after covering around half of the Average Daily Range (ADR over 60 days). The Euro is under downside pressure today following a…

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