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Dollar Rises Despite Late Week Corrective Move

Dollar Rises Despite Late Week Corrective Move

Dollar Index Forecast – USDX Analysis 19th February

  • The dollar has risen versus its major currency counterparts despite a late week downside correction; this came after the heavily weighted EUR/USD currency pair rallied almost 200 pips on Thursday along with cable and other majors.
  • A correction on the USDX came after price had penetrated the key price pivot level at the 79.70 area; this had confluence with a 38.2% Fibonacci retrace of the swing lower from 13/01/2012.
  • A further corrective move lower could potentially be seen as the long upside shadow on Thursdays candle, coming at a confluent technical area, has the look of a swing point.  Admittedly this is heavily dependent on developments in the euro-zone area which should have a bearing on any dollar forecast in february and possibly beyond. 
  • The USDX gave a modest weekly range of 151 pips which is 94% of the 160 pip 26 week average weekly range.
  • Potential resistance is seen at the 79.70 price pivot in the first instance with the 80.00 psychological round number and 50% retrace of the last swing lower closely aligned on a failure to hold below 79.70.
  • The 78.35 swing low on 9/2/2012 was held by the highly confluent area comprising of 38.2 and 50% retraces of prior moves.  This level now has price structure support and we will monitor closely on any further move to this area for support.

Dollar Index (USDX) Daily Chart

dollar index analysis usdx 2012 02 thumb Dollar Rises Despite Late Week Corrective Move

 

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