Euro/Dollar Technical Overview – Sentiment Update – 17th July Forecast
Market Sentiment Overview
US June retail sales came in well under par with a decrease in sales by 0.5%. This brings elevated speculation that the Federal Reserve might be inclined to introduce QE3 measures (an additional round of quantitative easing) in order to stimulate the slowing economy. Fed Chair Bernanke is due on Tuesday to present key policy report to US congress. Issues in the Eurozone periphery continue and Moody’s rating agency downgrades Italian financial institutions longer-term debt and deposit ratings; the agency cites “the weakening of the Italian government’s credit profile”. S&P 500 Index down -0.23%. Gold – Electronic (COMEX) down -0.20%.
EURUSD Technical Analysis Update
- The EURUSD currency rate is testing the previous support lows around 1.2280 after the USD came under pressure following June retail sales data. This follows the “key reversal” seen on Friday and highlighted in our last update.
- The short covering scenario appears to be playing out for the EURUSD and the prior swing low around 1.2400 could potentially be seen on an extended corrective move. A daily candle close for Monday at current levels would also see a bullish hammer candle printed.
- The 1.2670 area range highs are still viewed as key and would need to be surpassed before we looked for any meaningful reversal.
- Any change to this weeks upside trend and subsequent downside move could potentially find support around the multi-year lows just above 1.2150.
- A break to fresh two-year lows would open up a possible move to a key downside confluence level; this comes in the combination of Fibonacci extension from the swing points 1.3485 > 1.2283 > 1.2747 (61.8% extension) and major EURUSD psych level 1.2000.
- See our latest dollar index update for an overview of the dollar versus it currency major counterparts.
EURUSD Daily Timeframe Analysis
Event Risk – July 17th Includes:
EUR – German ZEW Sentiment 10:00am
EUR – ZEW Sentiment 10:00am
USD – Core CPI 1:30pm
USD – CPI 1:30pm
USD – TIC Long term purchases 1:30pm
USD – Industrial production 2:15pm
USD – Fed Chair Bernanke testifies 3:00 pm
