EURUSD Analysis Week Of 24th September 2012
- EURUSD has dropped around 200 pips from the 1.3171 (September 16th) high and is consolidating around the 1.3000 level at present. As previously noted the 1.3000 round number level is also a significant technical area as can be seen when it gave support during early 2012.
- The price action on Friday was within the prior days range thus giving an inside bar/inside day.
- The ultimate low of this past week came within close proximity (14 pips) of the 23.6% retrace level from the last bullish wave higher. When looking at the Fibonacci levels we see the 38.2% level has confluence with the previous swing high round 1.2740 and the 50% and 61.8% retrace levels are aligned with the 1.2600 and 1.2500 round number levels respectively.
- It is also worth noting that the US dollar index has printed it’s first upside week after 4 consecutive bearish weeks. EURUSD has closed with the first bearish week seen in the last six.
- The above comes after market participants from the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) had increased bearish USD positioning by over 60% on the previous week as of last Tuesday. Traders likewise cut short EUR FX positions by 20% over the same time period. The net short EUR position has dropped from 93,658 to 73,482 futures contracts; this represents the lowest net short EUR position seen since November 2011.
- See the linked post for a detailed overview of the intra-day EURUSD price action on Friday.