EUR/USD Monthly Chart Analysis – Higher Timeframe Support and Resistance Levels

The attached monthly timeframe chart shows the EUR/USD currency pair from a high level perspective with the longer term support/resistance and price dynamics. 

• It is interesting to see the previous interaction with the lower Bollinger band which has confluence with the 50% retrace of the major swing from October 2000 through July 2008 when referencing this monthly chart.
• The 1.2350 area horizontal line has given price pivot support on numerous occasions and is an area that we will be watching for price action if reached.
• EUR/USD is currently 1.99% down on the current month.
• The average range over 24 months has been 760 pips.  We are half-way through January with a current range of 455 pips which is 59% of the average monthly range for EUR/USD.  
• A continuation move to the downside,which covered the aforementioned average monthly range, would take EUR/USD down to 1.2368 and very close to the horizontal support level.  We will not be looking for any longer term perspective EUR/USD counter trend opportunities until price gets to this level at the very least – unless there is a significant change in the fundamentals.