EUR/USD Sentiment And Technical Analysis 30th June

• The latest COT report data from Friday shows that speculative net short EUR positioning increased by 12% on the prior week from -141,066 to -159,880 on the 26th June; however, the real story was that the EUR/USD closed the NY session up over 1.5% on the daily basis after covering 244% of the ADR.
• The market has been heavily long the greenback and the EU summit has now seen a near term shift in sentiment.  The question now is will the outlined plan stand up to scrutiny from the market over the coming days/weeks?
• Price has now seen a strong close over the 1.2500 level and the recent range highs around 1.2750 are looking fragile.
• The euro/dollar daily chart below shows price came close to testing the broken trend line on Friday, before backing off from the 1.2700 area daily high, to close at 1.2642.
• The 1.2750 range highs are closely aligned with the 38.2% Fib retrace and could potentially see some kind of intra-day resistance if hit. A daily close above this level would open up potential for a move to the major confluence area around 1.3000.  The zone around this area has 100 & 150 EMA, 1.3000 round number and the 61.8% Fib ret combined with the price structure lows.