EURUSD Technical Analysis – FX Price Action – WC 21/1/13
- The EUR/USD currency pair has been trading in a range between 1.3255 – 1.3403 since around the 11th Jan. The lower end of this range has seen support near the prior resistance highs from late December thru January. The range resistance highs are likewise aligned with a cluster of March/April 2012 daily highs.
- Last week ultimately closed around 40 pips lower after oscillating between these range highs and lows through the week.
- The H4 chart is showing what could potentially be the early stages of a lower time frame double top (see fig 2).
- Any meaningful break under the recent support lows has us monitoring the 1.3150 area price pivot zone. There is also potential for this PPZ to have confluence with the ascending trend line, as shown on the daily euro/dollar chart below (fig 1).
- Alternatively, a sustained EUR/USD breakout to the upside, inline with the prevailing trend, could see the 1.3500 handle and closely aligned 50% corrective retrace as a key technical area of interest.
- We also note the latest COT report data shows a EUR net long position around 7K versus the net short 8K position last week; this represents the largest net long EUR FX position since mid 2011.
EUR/USD Technical Update – D1 Chart – fig 1
EUR/USD Technical Update – H4 Chart – fig 2
EURUSD Forecast, Euro/Dollar Outlook, 21/1/13