EURUSD Technical Analysis – Week Of 14th – 18th January 2013
- Our previous technical update noted that the EURUSD currency pair was threatening the recent range resistance highs circa 1.3300. Price has subsequently taken out this key level and closed the week strongly on continued signs of increasing risk appetite.
- The euro has now hit its highest level in nine-months vs the US dollar, after breaking through key resistance on Friday. A weekly range of 345 pips signals an increase in volatility and represents 152% of the AWR (average weekly range) over 26 weeks.
- The following euro/dollar upside technical levels are now a focus over the coming trading sessions:
- The breakout above 1.3300 had price move to the 1.3364 area, just under the cluster of prior March/April daily highs located around the 1.3380′s.
- Any extended rally has the 1.3485 area 29/2/12 swing high as a technical focus, just under the 50% retrace and 1.3500 handle. This is a key EURUSD confluence zone.
- To the downside we will be monitoring the following EURUSD technical areas:
- 1.3300 is now viewed as potential support on any corrective move lower.
- Further to this the 1.3150 area price pivot zone.
- Any major shift in sentiment once again has us looking at the 1.3000 level. The last strong pullback bottomed out at 1.2996 and price is now around 350 pips higher.
- COT report analysis – Large specs were net short the EUR FX (CME) once again according to the latest CFTC update. The latest data shows a $1.8 billion net short wager (-8035 contracts) as of last Tuesday.
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