COT Report Analysis April 7th
- British pound sterling, GBP – Sterling net shorts are now at 8807 contracts. This is the least bearish seen since September 2011. If this upside trend continues the British pound (CME) could be out of the net short area within weeks.
- Canadian dollar – The CAD has likewise seen another week of gains in positioning as it registered 29,487 net long contracts versus 23,787 the previous week. This comes as the USDCAD currency pair consolidates around parity. USDCAD parity has been like a magnet recently and a sustained move away from this area is required in order to form a near term directional bias.
- Japanese yen – The latest COT report data from the CFTC has shown that speculative wagers on the JPY dropping against the greenback had dropped at the time of 3/4/2012 in contrast to the prior week. USDJPY is trading around 300 pips lower than the recent highs; GBPJPY has now broken below the key 130.00 area and hit trend line support. It should be noted that this came during thin holiday period trading.
- Euro – EUR FX net short positioning has decreased from around 89k to 79k as futures traders on the forex market cut bearish EUR positions. This data does not capture the NFP report from Friday as it is based on the previous Tuesdays statistics. This does however see a continuation of the short covering trend seen since a record 171,347 net shorts were recorded in January.
- Swiss Franc – The CHF has registered 14,676 net short contracts versus 15,096 the previous week. This comes as the market tested the SNB’s resolve on a move to the cap at 1.20 on the EURCHF.
- Australian dollar – Large speculators cut bullish positions on the AUD with 49,319 net longs versus 59,574 on the prior week. See our latest AUDUSD analysis post.