Forex: EURUSD Analysis 13th November – Euro At Two-Month Low Vs Dollar

The EURUSD has traded close to its two-month lows during a subdued and illiquid US holiday trading session on Monday 12th November.  This comes as Greece and the US both reflect upon upcoming fiscal issues.   The US safe-haven bid is widely anticipated to continue into this coming week, with no positive fundamental drivers expected to provide the catalyst for a prolonged EUR/USD upside rally.  The corrective risk is that any positive developments may catch a heavily short market off guard and see a stop fuelled run higher.  

Potential euro/dollar resistance areas of note include the following:  

• The previous resistance highs from late June around 1.2738, which coincided with the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level, gave an element of support last week; this has now seen resistance and capped the upside earlier today, almost to the pip.
• 1.2800 marks the previous swing low before last weeks breakout to the downside.  This prior support could see resistance. 
• The 1.2830 recent support lows are still aligned with the 200 period SMA (simple moving average), which is a key focus of at present.

EUR/USD is now approaching the following downside technical levels, which could be supportive:

• The daily time frame 100 SMA, and previous daily resistance highs located around 1.2635.
• The 50% retrace level of 1.2041 - 1.3171.
• Any extended downside move could see the 1.2500 double zero round number level come into play.
• The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace around 1.2472 is aligned with previous daily support lows from late August to early September.