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Forex FX:AUDUSD Price Action Analysis-20th November 2012

Forex FX:AUDUSD Price Action Analysis-20th November 2012

Forex/FX – AUDUSD Price Action Analysis – 20th November

(Forex FX 4X, Australian Dollar Analysis)

  • The AUD/USD (Australian/US dollar) has experienced extended gains today (19th November) as risk assets rallied on hopes the US may avoid the so called ‘fiscal cliff’.  The currency pair gained +0.66% on the day and has moved back above the ascending trend line area, as can be seen on the daily AUD/USD chart below.  
  • A report showing the IMF may raise the reserve status of the AUD may have been supportive for the Australian currency, showing that central banks are looking to diversify currency holdings.
  • Upside price action has been found since the a pin bar reversal candle formed on the 16/11/12. This setup came at an area comprised of a 50% corrective retrace, 200 period SMA (simple moving average) and previous support lows.  
  • This was the latest in a series of candle reversal setups for this currency pair.  Our previous AUD/USD analysis post highlighted the daily bearish engulfing candle prior to the drop below the trend line support area.
  • 1.0450 area range highs have capped the AUD/USD over recent trading and any sustained upside would need to breach this key near term area.
  • Large speculators (non-commercials) are still heavily long the AUD according to the latest COT report, with 68K net long futures contracts versus the previous 60K position.
  • Event risk comes with the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes due at 12:30 GMT with the associated speech from Governor Glenn Stevens.  FX market participants will be looking for any additional signs/intentions that the RBA is considering a continuation of its rate cutting cycle, or not as the case may be.
audusd 300x165 Forex FX:AUDUSD Price Action Analysis 20th November 2012
AUD/USD Analysis (D1)

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One Response to Forex FX:AUDUSD Price Action Analysis-20th November 2012

  1. forex-fx-4x says:

    The RBA meeting minutes were released around an hour ago and the AUD/USD is only a few pips away from the price when we uploaded the article.

    Highlights from the release include the following:

    - The Board’s decision at the October meeting to reduce the cash rate had pushed borrowing interest rates a little lower….. effects of the earlier reductions in the cash rate were, meanwhile, continuing to work their way through the economy……members expected that further effects of these changes were yet to be observed.
    - Euro area crisis remains a risk for global growth.

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