- Gold (a daily XAUUSD chart of which is shown below) has taken out the recent range lows and is once again trading close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the last move higher. Price is now looking heavy in this area and has made a daily close under the prior swing low.
- The precious metal is now trading beneath the 200 day SMA. Any sustained move lower would see the 365 EMA as gold comes back to equilibrium with the longer term moving averages. In the medium to long term a move to the 1531 area would once again test the demand zone which has twice sent price back up to the 1800 mark.
- COT report – Gold (CMX) has large speculators marginally less bullish on the precious metal with around 141k versus the previous weeks 147k net long positions.
- As mentioned above, the downside is looking vulnerable; however, any failure to move lower could see the 1667 area price pivot and 1700 area well defined pivot; this 1700 level held price recently, as resistance, on the 26/3/2012.
- Friday gave an inside day but this could be attributable to the holiday period trading only. Open interest has been lower over the week.