Swiss Franc Technical Outlook – USDCHF Analysis – March 4th

The technical outlook for the CHF (Swiss Franc) had been somewhat unclear over the previous months. The CHF had gained strength versus the EUR, but weakened versus the U.S. dollar.

The greenback on the other hand started on the weaker side around the first half of Jan, but has moved strongly higher since then, particularly since the start of Feb. The dollar has subsequently found strength versus most currency majors, with the USDX trading near a 6-month high and a breakout of the descending channel on USDCHF.

COT report data from the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) revealed market participants moved from $630 million net short the USD last week to $12.7 billion net long as of last Tuesday. The Swiss franc COT report net position went from –675 to –8191 net short contracts.

The USDCHF pair has had a break above the 100-day SMA around 0.9275.
0.9390 area past resistance may see some kind of support if the US dollar/Swiss franc corrects lower.
50% retrace and past swing high around the 0.9500 whole number is an area of technical confluence.

Mary McCarthy, Forex-FX-4X.com

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