US Dollar/Canadian Dollar Intra Day Analysis

There is a bearish engulfing/long shadow reversal signal on the 4 hour chart today which could be signalling a near term top for USD/CAD.  Parity is a key level for the USD/CAD currency pair and has seen many reversals over the past few years.   A technical analysis breakdown of this setup follows below:

USD/CAD 4 Hour Chart 1

• Our weekly analysis for USD/CAD stated that “any reaction, or price action reversal signal, at parity should be monitored closely”.   Our longer term bias is still to the upside but intra-day price action is hinting towards a possible near term drop for USD/CAD.
• The retrace confluence level around 1.9880 is an interesting target area as this may see renewed buying if hit.  This comprises of a 50% retrace of 0.9725 > 1.002696 and 23.6% Fibonacci retrace of 0.94063 > 1.0026.
• A daily close below 0.9950 would add weight to the near term bearish scenario.
• The dollar index has broken above the 76.30 area resistance highs and any retest of this area, with subsequent reaction, could also give a heads up as to a potential resumption of the USD/CAD uptrend.
• USD/CAD has been caught in a trading range between 0.9700 and 1.000 since early August.  Any sustained reversal from the resistance highs could potentially see a continuation of this medium term consolidating price action.
• Two 4 hours charts are attached highlighting the delta between the associated feeds. 

USD CAD 4 Hour Chart 2 (Different Closing Time)

USD CAD Weekly Line Chart Shows Multiple Reversals