USDJPY Analysis – BOJ Interventionist Rhetoric – May 6th 2012
The JPY is still near the top of recent trading ranges versus currency majors. The Yen pressed once again over the key 80.00 versus the dollar on fresh intervention talk from Japanese policy makers during last week. Friday had the dollar/yen move back to recent lows around 79.56 which marks the lowest point seen since February 21st.
Nakao the Japanese Vice Finance Minister mentioned the current JPY moves have been “rapid” and asserted that that Japanese government intends on acting in a timely and appropriate manner if required. It is not uncommon for the BOJ to speak like this. If price can once again move above 80.00 instantaneous action from the BOJ is not as likely. Fresh multi-week lows for USDJPY could however see the BOJ stepping up intervention rhetoric.
Japanese Yen COT report – net short positioning (CME) decreased to 50,173 net short contracts from 55,903 on the previous week. The net short yen positions were pared and this is the smallest net short position seen in around a month.
- USDJPY has found near term support on a third touch of the highlighted trend line.
- A move below the 79.60 area would see a continuation of the recent series of lower highs and lows and a break of the trend line.