USDJPY Analysis – Forecast – Week Of June 25th 29th

• The USD/JPY has seen a strong move back up to the 80.50 area price pivot after closing above the 80.00 handle on Friday.
• A lower high has now been printed just above the 78.50 area which coincided with a near perfect retest of the down sloping trend line as seen on the chart below.  A move into this kind of technical area, as seen on this occasion, can often see a near term high or low printed.
• The aforementioned 80.50 PPZ is our short term potential resistance high and the initial support could come around 79.70 which has numerous candle highs clustered at the level.  Price has however moved strongly to the upside, with little on the way of a retrace, and may be due a small correction lower.
• Latest CFTC COT report data shows that the Japanese yen net long position is now the biggest seen since the end of Feb 2012.  This was prior to the large upside move during the later part of the week and could potentially see JPY bulls trapped in unwanted positions.
• Our mid-term directional bias is to the upside after the trend line break which was a constructive technical development and the fact that the dollar/yen pair is trading at the highest level in a month.